Gothenburg, Sweden-2019/09/14: An American automobile and energy company specializing in... [] Electric vehicle manufacturing seen in Gothenburg with the Tesla logo. (Photo: Karol Serewis/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) rose 10% last week (five trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 index, which was basically flat over the same period. So what is driving the recent rise? On Friday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the so-called "Rebuild Better" bill, which allocated more than $500 billion to combat climate change, provide tax incentives for the installation of renewable energy systems and the purchase of electric vehicles. This may make the cost of ownership of electric vehicles such as Tesla cheaper, which bodes well for long-term demand. In addition, Bloomberg released a relatively detailed report on Apple's secret electric car ambitions last week, stating that it may launch a car as early as 2025. This report may confirm that, in the long run, the electric car market will be profitable enough for high-profit players such as Apple to want to enter. This may give investors more confidence in Tesla's long-term prospects, because it may be more than a decade ahead of Apple in the electric vehicle market.

Now, is TSLA stock ready to rise further? According to our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the past ten years, TSLA stock has a 75% chance of rising in the next month (21 trading days). For more detailed information, please refer to our analysis of Tesla's rising opportunities.

Five days: TSLA 10%, and S&P 500 index 0.3%; outperform the market

Ten days: TSLA -7%, compared to S&P 500 index 0.08%; underperforming market

21 days: TSLA 27%, and S&P 500 index 3.4%; outperform the market

Although electric vehicles will be the key to the decarbonization of passenger cars, hydrogen can play an important role in the decarbonization of commercial transportation and industrial sectors. Please refer to our topic on hydrogen economy stocks for an overview of US companies that sell hydrogen fuel cells, related renewable energy equipment, and supply hydrogen.

[10/21/2021] After the third quarter results are announced, is Tesla's stock still overvalued?

Although chip shortages and supply chain issues have put pressure on the automotive industry, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) announced stronger-than-expected results for the third quarter of 2021. Although Tesla’s adjusted earnings per share increased by approximately 2.5 times to US$1.86, which was nearly US$0.34 higher than our expectation, Tesla’s revenue increased by 57% year-on-year to approximately US$13.75 billion, compared to our expectation of US$13.50 billion. Dollar. This result was driven by strong demand from the mass market for its Model Y and Model 3 vehicles, with deliveries increasing by 87% year-on-year, as well as increased production at the Shanghai Super Factory, which now produces more cars than Tesla’s Monte, California factory.

Tesla's profit margins have also been rising steadily. Excluding regulatory credit, the gross profit margin of automobiles increased from 23.7% last year and 25.8% in the second quarter to 28.8% in the third quarter. Now, Tesla’s gross profit margin is much higher than the average profit margin of the automotive industry below 10% [1]. We believe that in the long run, as Tesla increases the sales of its updated Model S, they will also There is room for further growth and X luxury cars and higher software sales. In other words, ongoing supply chain issues and the planned opening of production facilities in Texas and Berlin in the coming months may put some pressure on Tesla's costs.

Taking into account the company's stronger revenue growth, expanding profit margins, and the benefits of software sales, we slightly increased our price estimate for Tesla's stock to around $610 per share. However, our price is still estimated to be about 30% lower than the current market price of $866 per share, as mainstream automakers’ increasingly competitive electric vehicle sector and concerns about rising inflation and rising interest rates may hurt high-growth stocks Valuation. Nevertheless, we estimate that Tesla's market value of more than $600 billion is almost twice the market value of Toyota, the most valuable mainstream auto company. Please refer to our analysis of Tesla's valuation: Is TSLA stock expensive or cheap? More detailed information about Tesla's valuation and its comparison with peers.

[10/18/2021] Will Tesla's stock price rise after profitability in the third quarter of 2021?

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is expected to release its 2021 third quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday, October 20. The electric vehicle leader has provided delivery data for the quarter and pointed out that its sales reached a record 241,300 units, which marked a month-on-month growth. Despite the continued semiconductor crunch and logistics challenges, it still increased by 20%, a year-on-year increase. Nearly 73%. (See update below) So how is Tesla's quarterly results expected to develop?

We expect revenue of approximately US$13.6 billion, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of US$13.5 billion. This will increase by 54.5% over last year. Revenue may also increase by about 13% month-on-month. Although Tesla's mass market models Model 3 and Y may still be the biggest drivers of sales, the company has also increased its production of high-end models after suspending production for part of the second quarter to give way to upgraded models. Tesla's recent strength in China may also be the key to its performance this quarter.

We expect Tesla's adjusted earnings per share to be approximately US$1.52—about twice the number last year and slightly higher than the consensus earnings per share of US$1.50. Profit growth may be driven by Tesla's higher delivery volume, which should continue to improve its fixed cost absorption and higher software sales related to fully autonomous driving options. Tesla recently launched a new software subscription of $200, which we think can also boost software sales. In other words, due to the continued tightening of parts supply and rising logistics costs, Tesla may face some pressure.

Overall, although growth is expected to remain strong, we still believe that Tesla’s stock is expensive. Calculated at the current price of approximately US$840 per share, the trading price of the stock is approximately 155 times the generally expected earnings in 2021, and the income in 2021 is approximately 16.5 times. Tesla's market value is also about three times that of Toyota, the largest car market. That being said, Tesla's stock still has momentum, and if the company can achieve a level beyond profitability, the stock is likely to rise further. Check our analysis. What are the expectations for Tesla's third quarter 2021 earnings? Learn more about the company’s revenue and profit forecasts and how it relates to Tesla’s valuation.

[10/7/2021] Despite the shortage of chips, how did Tesla release its delivery record for the third quarter?

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) released a series of reliable delivery data for the third quarter of 2021 late last week, and pointed out that a record 241,300 vehicles were delivered during the quarter, an increase of 20% from the previous quarter. A year-on-year increase of nearly 73%. The impressive numbers show that Tesla can overcome a large number of supply chain issues that affect the wider automotive industry. In the long run, even Toyota, which has the most complete supply chain in the automotive industry, had to cut global automotive production by 40% in September due to a global shortage of semiconductors. So how did Tesla deliver under difficult circumstances? We think there may be three broad reasons.

First, Tesla focuses on higher-end cars. Its gross profit margin for cars in the second quarter of 2021 is close to 26%, excluding regulatory credit sales, while profit margins in the wider car and truck segment are less than 10%. [2] This allows the company to better ensure supply, because semiconductor companies can prioritize higher-value participants. We have also seen a similar situation in the consumer electronics field. Compared with the broader industry, the high-margin Apple manages its chip supply much better.

The current shortage of chips in the automotive sector is mainly due to the fact that semiconductor factories have shifted their production capacity from tried and tested traditional chips (usually 40nm process nodes and above) used by car manufacturers to more modern chips with more advanced process technology Group. Tesla's more modern vehicle architecture may be helping it adapt to current conditions faster. Tesla's strong software engineering capabilities also help. Tesla said that in the second quarter of 2021, it will be able to purchase replacement chips and write updated software for them within a few weeks to integrate them into its vehicles. [3] This may not be easy for mass market automakers.

Tesla's China business may also have played an important role in this quarter's deliveries. Sales of electric vehicles in China have been booming, and Chinese manufacturers seem to have less trouble ensuring chip supply. For example, China's high-end electric vehicle manufacturers Weilai and Li Auto achieved year-on-year growth of 100% and 190% respectively in the third quarter of 2021. Tesla now has a great influence in China, and its Shanghai plant accounts for more than 40% of its total current production capacity. This may help the company.

Despite the market sell-off last month, Tesla's stock price basically kept rising, with a return of about 4%, while the S&P 500 index fell nearly 4%. So, will Tesla's stock price rise further in the near future or may it fall? According to the Trefis machine learning engine, there is a 61% chance that Tesla stock will rise next month. For more detailed information, please refer to our analysis of Tesla's rising opportunities.

In other words, due to increasingly fierce competition among mainstream automakers in the field of electric vehicles, and concerns about rising inflation and rising interest rates, our valuation of Tesla shares is only about $560 per share, which is similar to the current market price. The discount is nearly 30%. Valuation of high-growth stocks. Check out our analysis of Tesla's valuation: expensive or cheap

[9/29/2021] Despite the broad market sell-off, Tesla stock is still strong. What's next?

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) fell about 1.7% in Tuesday's trading, while the Nasdaq 100 index fell nearly 3% due to rising bond yields and a fall in the US consumer confidence index. Although Tesla is usually more sensitive to market declines because it is a high-multiplier, high-growth stock, it has performed better in the current volatility. In fact, compared with the 2% drop in the Nasdaq 100 index over the same period, Tesla's stock price also rose about 5% in the last week (five trading days). The stock also rose about 9% in the last month. Tesla is scheduled to report on deliveries for the third quarter of 2021 in early October, and as the company sets new quarterly delivery records fairly consistently, investors may expect another strong quarter. According to a report by Electrek, Tesla CEO Elon Musk told employees that September may be Tesla's "craziest delivery month." In contrast, Tesla delivered a record 201,250 vehicles in the second quarter of 2021, a 9% increase from the previous quarter and an increase of approximately 130% year-on-year.

Now, is Tesla's stock ready to grow? According to our machine learning analysis of stock price trends over the past ten years, TSLA stock has a 63% chance of rising in the next month (21 trading days). For more detailed information, please refer to our analysis of Tesla's rising opportunities.

Five days: TSLA 5.2%, and S&P 500 index 0.07%; outperform the market

Ten days: TSLA 4.4%, compared with S&P 500 index -2.3%; outperformed the market

21 days: TSLA 9.2%, compared with S&P 500 index -3.6%; outperforms the market

Want to know more details about Tesla's valuation and financial performance in recent years? Check out our dashboard on Tesla revenue and Tesla valuation for more details.

[8/19/2021] How will Tesla's self-driving investigation affect its stock?

Investors have been betting that Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) leadership in autonomous driving technology-one of the most powerful trends in the automotive market-will help it shape the future of transportation . However, the company’s popular driving assistance function Autopilot has received more and more regulatory scrutiny this week. The National Highway Traffic Safety and Administration (NHTSA) pointed out that it is investigating 11 cases of Tesla vehicles and parking. A case of a car collision. Responder. In addition, two US senators have asked the US Federal Trade Commission to investigate whether Tesla’s naming of its driver assistance systems "autopilot" and "autopilot" is deceptive. Tesla shares have fallen about 4% in the past three trading days, partly because of the news. So, what do recent developments mean for Tesla's self-driving ambitions?

Although the reported accidents are obviously worrying, safety-related accidents and investigations are an important part of the automotive business, and we believe that this will not have a significant impact on the progress of Tesla's autonomous driving business. Data shows that Tesla's driver assistance system actually makes its cars safer. Tesla releases a vehicle safety report every quarter. According to its data for the first quarter of 2021, it said that it will record an accident for every 4.19 million miles driven with Autopilot, and 2.05 million for every driving without Autopilot. Miles records an accident. Other active safety features. Compared with the accident data of the past three years, the total mileage using Autopilot has also been declining. In other words, Tesla's current marketing approach seems to make customers think that manual supervision of vehicles may not be necessary, which may be an area where regulators may force the company to make changes.

Although there have been more and more news reports about car accidents in recent years, sales of Tesla's self-driving software seem to be growing well. Although Tesla did not announce software sales, the company's automotive gross profit margin has been steadily increasing (25.8% in the second quarter, only 18.7% last year), which shows the software's additional rate (usually high profit margins) It may rise. In addition, Tesla also increased the price of the software from approximately US$5,000 in 2019 to approximately US$10,000 at present, reflecting the increase in demand and capabilities. Tesla also launched a new software subscription of $200, which we believe can further promote adoption. When the company holds its first Artificial Intelligence Day event on Thursday night, we should have more details about Tesla's progress in autonomous driving.

Our valuation of Tesla stock is approximately $560 per share, which is a discount of nearly 20% compared to the market price. Check out our analysis of Tesla valuation: Is TSLA stock expensive or cheap? More detailed information about Tesla's valuation and its comparison with its peers.

[Update 7/3/2020] Tesla: The King of Self-Driving Cars?

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has risen by more than 150% so far this year, and its market value exceeds $200 billion. Elusive. Why? When you look at more traditional metrics (such as car sales), Tesla is small—less than 400,000 vehicles were sold last year, while many large companies such as Honda, GM, Ford, Toyota, and others all sold more than 5 million vehicles. That’s right, Tesla sold a small portion of the cars sold by many other car companies, and it was more valuable than all car companies.

So what drives Tesla's value?

Part of the reason is the improvement in fundamentals (first-quarter results and second-quarter deliveries were better than expected, and sales in China were strong), but there is more. Investors may bet that the damage caused by Covid-19 may consolidate Tesla's position as the leading electric and autonomous driving game-these two independent and perhaps the most powerful trends in the automotive industry. At the same time, there are signs that some mainstream automakers are slowing down investment in this area, while they are coping with sales declines and dealing with significant recent financial pressures.

For example, BMW and Mercedes-Benz announced that they will temporarily terminate the autonomous driving alliance, citing current business and economic conditions. [4] The thing is this: The main function of a car is to drive. Tesla is focused on autonomous driving, while some others either quit or show lackluster progress. This is similar to a small cereal manufacturer doubling down on the "sweet" category of breakfast cereals, while others say they have opt out. Do you believe?

It's not even a long way off: we listed the numbers on the scale of autonomous driving and compared them with others in our interactive dashboard analysis: how far is Tesla in the autonomous driving race?

The recorded mileage is a key indicator of an autonomous vehicle, because the autonomous driving algorithm is based on machine learning, and more training data makes the algorithm smarter. Tesla continues to make steady progress in this regard. The report stated that as of April 2020, the cumulative mileage of its vehicles on Autopilot was 3 billion miles, higher than the 1 billion miles reported at the end of 2018. This is far ahead of its closest competitor, Waymo (backed by Alphabet), which reported that as of January, its test vehicle had driven 20 million miles on public roads. [5] Although Waymo has been "testing", Tesla is just doing it! The strategy is simple and bold: sell cars directly, add autonomous driving features with a lot of warnings, and collect data as users use them. Shouldn't Google buy Tesla or other automakers and do the same? See how Tesla's value rose to $1.5 trillion with the help of a deal with Google.

Tesla also seems to be more confident in the functionality of its system. Starting on July 1, the company increased the price of its fully automated driving software upgrade from $7,000 to $8,000. CEO Elon Musk said that as features increase, the price will only continue to rise. Tesla is considering the idea of ​​offering its self-driving software as a subscription service-a move that may increase the company's recurring revenue stream and may increase the adoption of the software package.

Is now a good time to buy Tesla stock? Yes-especially if you believe in one of Tesla's important metrics: Tesla's time horizon. On the other hand, for a more balanced and risk-adjusted view, please refer to our analysis of Tesla valuation: jump into Tesla, wait, or exit? 

In the past few years, self-driving cars have become a buzzword in the automotive industry, from mainstream automakers such as General Motors to Silicon Valley startups such as Waymo (supported by Alphabet) hoping to gain a foothold in the market. However, electric vehicle pioneer Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) seems to have a considerable early lead in this area in terms of autonomous driving mileage and monetization of autonomous driving technology. Since its establishment, more than 780,000 cars have been delivered, most of which are pre-installed with autonomous driving functions that users can unlock by paying software fees. The company has developed a meaningful autonomous driving business. In this analysis, we compare the mileage of Tesla and competitors and evaluate the near-term revenue potential of its autonomous driving software.

Tesla's autonomous driving range is close to 2 billion miles

Tesla's self-driving data log is orders of magnitude higher than its competitors

Tesla’s lead may be even greater because it continuously collects data on all vehicles

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